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The VP AdvantageHow running mates influence home state voting in presidential elections$
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Christopher J. Devine and Kyle C. Kopko

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9781784993375

Published to Manchester Scholarship Online: September 2016

DOI: 10.7228/manchester/9781784993375.001.0001

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Has the vice presidential home state advantage ever decided an election?

Has the vice presidential home state advantage ever decided an election?

(p.135) 7 Has the vice presidential home state advantage ever decided an election?
The VP Advantage

Christopher J. Devine

Kyle C. Kopko

Manchester University Press

This chapter reviews the historical record to determine whether such a decisive home state advantage has ever happened, and concludes that it has not. Even so, it is possible that a decisive advantage could happen, and that it might have happened if in past close elections a presidential candidate had selected a different running mate. This chapter estimates the counterfactual effect of a vice presidential finalist who was not chosen by the presidential candidate, based upon past empirical predictors of state voting. In one instance, the results suggests that a running mate could have provided an electorally decisive home state advantage. Specifically, had Al Gore selected then-Governor Jeanne Shaheen in the 2000 presidential election as his running mate, all things being equal, the counterfactual Gore/Shaheen ticket would have won New Hampshire’s electoral votes, and with it a majority of votes in the Electoral College.

Keywords:   Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire, Al Gore, Joe Lieberman, Dick Cheney, 2000 presidential election, vice presidential home state advantage, counterfactual candidacies, election forecasting, Electoral College

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