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The VP AdvantageHow running mates influence home state voting in presidential elections$
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Christopher J. Devine and Kyle C. Kopko

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9781784993375

Published to Manchester Scholarship Online: September 2016

DOI: 10.7228/manchester/9781784993375.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM MANCHESTER SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.manchester.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Manchester University Press, 2020. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in MSO for personal use.date: 22 January 2020

Has the vice presidential home state advantage ever decided an election?

Has the vice presidential home state advantage ever decided an election?

Chapter:
(p.135) 7 Has the vice presidential home state advantage ever decided an election?
Source:
The VP Advantage
Author(s):

Christopher J. Devine

Kyle C. Kopko

Publisher:
Manchester University Press
DOI:10.7228/manchester/9781784993375.003.0007

This chapter reviews the historical record to determine whether such a decisive home state advantage has ever happened, and concludes that it has not. Even so, it is possible that a decisive advantage could happen, and that it might have happened if in past close elections a presidential candidate had selected a different running mate. This chapter estimates the counterfactual effect of a vice presidential finalist who was not chosen by the presidential candidate, based upon past empirical predictors of state voting. In one instance, the results suggests that a running mate could have provided an electorally decisive home state advantage. Specifically, had Al Gore selected then-Governor Jeanne Shaheen in the 2000 presidential election as his running mate, all things being equal, the counterfactual Gore/Shaheen ticket would have won New Hampshire’s electoral votes, and with it a majority of votes in the Electoral College.

Keywords:   Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire, Al Gore, Joe Lieberman, Dick Cheney, 2000 presidential election, vice presidential home state advantage, counterfactual candidacies, election forecasting, Electoral College

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